The sixth kondratieff thesis
In , the U. That is a ratio of The traditional health care sector is important; it will remain important and indispensable. It plays a key role today in the economy and society, but it uses up too many resources at this point while productivity is too low Schneider et al. How can those two barriers — big losses, expenses and damages of the entropic sector and the high costs and low productivity of the traditional health care system — be overcome?
In the past, growth barriers were overcome by developing those basic innovations that were able to make the biggest contribution to reducing the primary growth barriers. And these new basic innovations do exist. The new basic innovations are biotechnology and psychosocial health and they come with an emerging new value chain.
This new value chain will be the main carrier of the sixth Kondratieff Fig. In the new value chain, biotechnology satisfies the most important criteria for identifying one of the basic innovations of the sixth Kondratieff cycle. It is not just a brand-new technology, it answers the question on how the second barrier, the traditional health care sector, can be overcome. One first-rate indicator is investments in research and development. How much biotechnology has globally shaped the research scene over the past few decades is evidenced by the fact that from to two-thirds of all Nobel Prizes in Medicine were awarded for findings in this area.
Within the research scene, private companies play a decisive role both in their research expenditures and in implementation of findings. Biotechnology companies lead the field. The companies in this industry that are listed on the stock exchange globally invested 20—40 percent of revenues in research and development.
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Homeopathy, classic acupuncture, electroacupuncture according to Dr. Voll, kinesiology, bioresonance therapy, anthroposophic medicine, magnetotherapy, Dr. Rath's cellular medicine, biofeedback, quantum healing, traditional Chinese medicine, Ayurvedic medicine, Reiki, etc. Company health insurance funds, company sponsored fitness programs, cafeterias, welfare centers, health seminars, preventive medical checkups, good health bonus.
Likewise, at In , less than ten cancer treatment products were in clinical trials in the USA, most being acutely toxic chemotherapy.
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A little known fact, but nonetheless true, is that pharmaceutical products are completely overrated in their effects today. This is not because the active ingredients are bad. In fact, this is because these active ingredients are used for every patient with the same diagnosis. The genetic makeup of the individual patients is completely disregarded. This results in the fact that 90 percent of drugs, for instance, work only for 30 percent of patients.
Personalized medicine should put an end to the era of one-size-fits-all drug policies. Whatever paths personalized medicine will take, the possible improvements are tremendous. The basic innovation, its leading industry and its value chain are the most important drivers of economic growth. The growth of biotechnology from to ranged between 14 and 20 percent. Even during the — and — crisis years, the sector grew at double-digit rates. This figure could almost double by Among the research-intensive industries, biotechnology has the largest number of startups.
Consequently, their contribution in creating brand-new jobs was very important.
In , about , people all over the world were employed in the field of biotechnology. The relative value for pharmaceutical products was billion euro. There are no growth limits detectable over the next few decades.
The basic innovation and its value chain is the driver of far-reaching changes in society as a whole. The applications for biotechnology reveal that biotechnological applications are going to significantly change the entire society Fig. Every year new applications are added to this e. The environment can be protected more effectively and crime fought more successfully with genetic identification methods.
By interfering in hereditary disposition, nature's balancing act can become unbalanced. The respect for Creation can be affected and thus opens the floodgates to manipulations of human beings. Criterion No. The lifecycle of the basic innovation equates the length of a Kondratieff cycle. The overall growth cycle cannot be exactly determined during the early phase of a basic innovation. Instead, one has to determine its respective state each year and estimate its further development. From the view of the early 21 st century, one can assume that the potential of biotechnology will not be fully developed over the next two decades.
At the same time, it is unlikely that the industry will maintain its above-average growth rates over the entire 21 st century.
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Psychosocial health is the second basic innovation of the sixth Kondratieff and the answer to the question on how its biggest barrier — global entropy — can be reduced most efficiently. It also meets the four criteria that are required for identifying a Kondratieff cycle. Scientific interest, for instance, shows that this criterion is being met. Between and approximately one hundred studies on mental and psychosocial health were published in the USA; between and it was more than 1, Koenig This signifies an eleven-fold increase.
From to it was more than 5, Bonelli and Koenig This enormous increase in scientific interest speaks for itself. With an increase of The increasing importance of psychosocial health is also revealed in the increasing research efforts in brain research, neuropsychology and psychiatry. Mental disorders and illnesses point to faulty brain activity at the mid range of cell structures.
One can assume that through further findings the relationship between the mind, brain, consciousness, body and social behavior will be better understood and contribute to improved psychosocial health. The computer provides the opportunity to model mental phenomena, to study them and to develop new therapies. At present, however, many mental and psychosomatic disorders and diseases cannot be treated with modern technologies, because the theoretical understanding is still incomplete.
Before computer-aided technologies are able to properly take effect, theoretical and practical research will have to better examine the relationships. Early experiments to treat mental disorders e. People who had fear of small spaces were able to learn how to cope with their fear in virtual rooms. The basic innovation, its leading industry and the value chain they trigger will be the main driver of the economy.
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To meet this criterion, the basic innovation and its value chain need to penetrate the overall economic structure, to lead it on a solid growth path over several decades and generate large new sales volumes. As pointed out above Barrier No. The largest percentage of this is made up of mental and social disorders and illnesses.
An improvement of mental and social health cannot just avoid the enormous losses, damages and costs of entropy; the physical, creative and productive potential of a person is also better mobilized this way. The basic innovation is the driver for far-reaching overall social changes. More and more, the mental layers of humans are being specifically addressed, examined, commercialized and burdened. The life cycle of the basic innovation corresponds with the duration of a Kondratieff cycle 40—60 years. This criterion cannot be exactly determined during the early phase of a Kondratieff cycle and needs to be assessed and checked year by year instead.
In light of the increased efforts in research, however, it is unlikely that the industry sector will maintain its leading function throughout the entire 21 st century. Hence, this subsequently means that its life cycle should almost certainly be within the length of a Kondratieff cycle. The World Health Organization WHO definition of health is a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity.
According to the WHO, terms like disease and health are no longer limited to the body.
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They are systems concepts. There are also sick souls, social dysfunctions and diseases and sick families, companies and societies. The new value chain of the sixth Kondratieff also includes other important drivers of growth — aside from the two basic innovations.